Italy has fallen behind and is now fighting for the second spot in the group. They need a mandatory win in this match. After some unconvincing matches, they managed to win 2-1 at home against Ukraine in their last game. They also have a new coach, Luciano Spalletti. Their only clean sheet so far in the group was against Malta, where they won 2-0 as the away team.
Malta fulfills its role as the underdog in this group. They firmly hold the last spot with zero points. They have lost all five of their matches so far, scoring only one goal. However, they have only conceded more than two goals against England, so the team cannot be underestimated. Historically, they have only lost to Italy, but their last five matches have had under 2.5 goals, and Malta has not scored a goal in any of them.
Italy has no reason or need to underestimate Malta, as they require a mandatory win. However, they may not be very convincing again, although I expect them to keep a clean sheet once more.